Preview Dern vs. Xiaonan. odds & ends

 

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Xiaonan

Another Card Plagued by Cancellations. 

3 Fights that Survived the Transformation. 

By Michael Jones - @keepingitrealmma

& 

Dave Manley - @mmabobblehead

            1. Mackenzie Dern (12-2) vs. Yan Xiaonan (15-3-0, 1NC)

                

                This bout against favored prospect Mackenzie Dern might be seen as win or go home. It could also be seen exactly how it is, a tough ass fighter on a very tough stretch of opponents.Yan was on an impressive 6 fight win streak over very respectable names. Then she suffered back to back losses, but to who? She lost her last fight by split decision to Marina Rodriguez, absolutely no shame there, Marina (16-1) has been killing it with back to back wins over Yan and Dern. The fight before that she got pretty beat up by current strawweight champ Carla Esparza. That was not a good look as it highlighted a glaring weakness in her ground game. Dern herself, is coming off a rough loss to Marina and more recently a controversial split decision win over Tecia Torres. The upside on Dern is her elite level ground game, however she has struggled getting the takedown. For perspective, Carla only needed 3 takedowns to mount the right offense to put Yan away. Dern has an arguably more technical ground game, but her takedown accuracy is an alarmingly low 10%. That means she whiffs on 9 of every 10 attempts, yikes! Without the takedown, Dern can be baited into disadvantageous striking wars, as seen in her losses to Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas. 

                Hardcore History: Yan Xiaonan started her combat sports journey with Sanda, formerly known as Sanshou. Sanda encompasses boxing and kick-boxing, originally developed by the Chinese military based on a hybrid of Kung Fu and modern fighting techniques. Yan was introduced to MMA around 2008, just before she turned 20, she fought professionally in China until she turned 27. Finally in 2017 she made her UFC debut in Singapore, the first ever Chinese born female fighter signed by the UFC. 2 years later she had her first fight on American soil, fighting on the prelims of UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes. 

Her opponent, Mackenzie Dern, needs little introduction. Famously transitioning to MMA after a loudly celebrated career in Jiu Jitsu, she is known as the most dangerous woman on the mat, irrespective of weight class. It's rumored that she started grappling around 3 years old. The known fact is that she's won just about every major tournament, including IBJJF, IBJJF no-gi, and UAEJJF World Pro Championship.

                Possible picks: Yan is a clever striker and will pray to keep this fight on the feet, she boasts a moderate 65% takedown defense. In 25 minutes, Dern will do everything in her power to takedown, trip or pull Yan to the ground. Assuming she gets it there at least once, Yan only has to get through the round. If Yan can survive even two hard rounds, she should win the striking match in the other three. By my estimation, the safe bet is Yan by decision (48-47). Although, Oddsmakers have Yan around a +175 underdog. That's probably because Dern has 7 subs in 12 wins, she only needs one takedown or scramble to tie you up. She's that good, the sexy bet is Dern by Submission, possibly in round 2. 

            2. Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) vs. Don Shainis (12-3)

                Originally scheduled to co-main event last weekend's fight night against highly touted prospect Giga Chikadze. Reports are Giga withdrew due to an undisclosed medical condition. On less than one week's notice, Sodiq finds himself standing across from a new opponent, one mostly unknown to fans of major fight promotions. Enter Don Shainis, riding a 5 fight win streak, including 4 tko's. A true wild man who has blurred the line between featherweight and lightweight. He suddenly lands in the UFC's featherweight division, one of its deepest divisions, dominated by Australian power house Alexander Volkanovski. This is a much more favorable matchup for Sadiq, considering the fiercely swift striking exhibited by his formerly scheduled opponent. That being said, Don doesn't shy away from a brawl and will throw everything at Sadiq. He's won by flying knee k.o. and is known to jump on submissions if he hurts you on the feet. That level of finishing I.Q. mixed with Sadiq's willingness to stand and strike could make for serious fireworks. The caveat and main consideration being Don's gas tank, not having been in a true fight camp (10-12 weeks) preparing for this matchup. Good thing it's only scheduled 3 rounds. 

                Hardcore History: Sodiq Yusuff is of Nigerian descent and only just gained his U.S. citizenship before his fight with Andre Fili in January of 2020. Its pretty scary to think of the possible road blocks to get that citizenship considering Covid 19 protocols started just 2 months later, the struggle could have grown immensely had there been even a small hiccup that pushed the process back, which happens all the time. Phew, thankfully it all worked out... (subtly wipes sweat off forehead). Sodiq started his mma career around the age of 20 and went pro around then age of 23. His most notable loss is a decision loss to shooting star Arnold Allen and that's his only loss in the UFC. As for his opponent, Don spent part of his career training with Citadel Martial Arts, just an hour north of his birthplace in Easton, MA. After a very serious neck injury and tough decision loss in his first fight back from the injury, he moved his training to St. Louis, MO with former UFC veteran and highly touted coach, James Krause. He's gone 5-1 since moving to Krause's Glory MMA & Fitness, with 4 of those wins coming by tko. 

            

                Possible Picks: This fight shouldn't go the distance, I could very easily see a stoppage win within 10 minutes of combat. Collectively they share 17 wins coming before the start of round 3. Should it go past that, the live bet should favor a decision, seeing as neither man has notched a round 3 stoppage win in their pro career. 

            3. Jessica Penne (14-7) vs. Tabatha Ricci (7-1)

                Another fight that was never supposed to happen. Ricci was originally scheduled to fight Cheyanne Vlismas, formerly Cheyanne Buys. Cheyanne had to withdraw from the fight and now Ricci gets a much higher profile matchup. Former title challenger Jessica Penne has fallen on somewhat hard times having lost 4 of her last 7 with 8 planned bouts getting canceled. She is still a very decent threat and will be a solid test for the grappling specialist in Ricci. To her own grappling credit, Penne got a significant submission win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz just over a year ago. Should this fight stay on the feet, Penne may have the advantage, even if she is filling in on short notice and wont have her best gas tank. I anticipate it hitting the ground at some point and can't wait to see the outcome, especially with Ricci's diverse background. 

                Hardcore History: Tabatha Ricci started training Judo around the sprite age of 6 in her home country of Birigui, Brazil. She later added Muy Thai and Jiu Jitsu training to her repertoire, competing in her first MMA fight at 17. After just 3 fights, at 21 she moved to Japan, where she received her black belt in Judo. She would turn her accomplishment into a ticket to compete in SEIZA, an all-female martial arts promotion that gathers fighters with specific disciplines from all over the world. On the surface it's a team oriented tournament where successful competitors would compete multiple times in one night, at its core it combines rules from all the different respective backgrounds and the weight class limits are much wider than that of American combat sports. Finally around 23 she moved to America to focus all her skills on MMA. As for her veteran opponent, Jessica Penne, she spent the vast majority of her professional career in American MMA, rocketing to the moon at 10 -1 before landing her first major title shot in Invicta FC against Naho Sugiyama. It was for the vacant Atomweight title and she was heavily favored. She didn't disappoint, seizing the title via 2nd round triangle choke. Both fighters had a very interesting and exciting rise to the big show, now they meet, but at very different points of their career. 

                Possible Picks: Ricci is running around a 2 - 1 favorite, leaving Penne around +176 should you fancy the under dog. With all of Ricci's unknowns and her incredibly diverse road to the octagon, you might hesitate to throw any serious change on her. Penne is battle tested and definitely has the experience advantage, that being said, she is falling on hard times at the back end of her career and is a late notice replacement. My biggest concern is her gas tank and ability to stay out of danger for 15 minutes. I might take a small flyer on Ricci by decision, if you're feeling wild, you might throw up an even smaller 'why the heck not' bet on Ricci by submission.