UFC 279 Preview w/ Picks

 

UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson

3 fights no one saw coming

By Michael Jones - @keepingitrealmma

& 

Dave Manley - @mmabobblehead

            There is a very curious underlying theme this weekend, that is the mess of fighters moving down or up in weight, for fights that may not make any sense. We will do our best to make light of the stakes, the odds and the ridiculousness. With that being said, I struggled to narrow it down to just 3 fights worth considering. There are at least 5 that fit the previously mentioned qualifications. To reign in the possibly endless banter, we will focus on the fights that provide us with the best balance of storyline and odds. 

            1. Nate Diaz (21-13) vs. Tony Ferguson (26-7). 

               

               We can't possibly ignore the madness involved in what could be Diaz's last fight, especially now that he's fighting the guy fans always wanted to see him go out against. Who better to headline this card then the most controversial fighter to ever step into the octagon and the most insane fighter to ever enter a gymnastics room? He's been fighting professionally since 2004, yeah that's 17 years ago, this could be his last ever bout with the UFC. I guess the match makers were thinking, "lets send him out in a blaze of guts and glory...". We had no reason to believe Diaz could win the originally planned fight with Chiamev, but isn't that the beauty in chaos. When he fought Conor McGregor twice, he surprised us all by submitting Conor the first time and splitting a decision the 2nd time around. In his last fight he faced Leon Edwards (current W.W. champ) and almost knocked him out; albeit very late in a fight he ultimately lost. The point being, he is fully capable of dragging anyone into deep water and drowning them. One serious mistake and Diaz will pounce on you with a million uninterrupted punches followed by chained submission attempts. 

               Tony Ferguson gets his own pass in this new fight, having the 170 lb. weight mark already in check and fighting someone who is actually the same original weight class as him, lightweight. This should be an infinitely more competitive fight and most likely they will receive decent compensation for the last minute change up. Tony Ferguson lost his last 4 fights to absolute killers at the top of the lightweight division, but this fight is way more his speed as he is now 38 and Diaz is 37. They share very similar mileage, wear and tear on the body. This fight may decide who finishes their fight career with a win. Ultimately though, its all about the entertainment and both guys are very well versed in that field. 

                Started from the bottom, now they here: Nate Diaz was considered a top 10 lightweight for years before he got a title shot or any huge fight worth writing home about. He's had a couple curious runs at welterweight in between his lightweight campaign. Just when it seemed like he would never get a fair shake, the Stockton bad boy found himself in a very dramatic fight with Conor McGregor. This was the fight that lit the match of his current run. He pulled off the huge upset with a come from behind, 4th round beatdown and submission win over McGregor. Since then he's been a superstar and finally getting the respect he deserved all along. Tony Ferguson had a very different climb to get here, between his historic 19-1 run and losing out on at least 5 attempted matchups with lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov. His 2020 interim title war with Justin Gaethje left him a shell of his former self and this jump to welterweight was his last hope at redemption, new life. Now he's in the fight of his life for the paycheck of his life. He has a way more publicized fight and a way better shot at victory. That already sounds like a win to me. 

                Dave’s Pick: The line for this fight has Tony Ferguson at a slight -140 favorite with the total at 4.5 rounds at -130. This fight definitely does not have the makings of a barn burner. I don’t see anyone getting knocked out with their respective punching power, either. This fight will be a fun fight, but this fight will be a longer fight.  Tony has gone the 3 round distance recently with Dariush and Olivera. He will go the distance with Diaz as well. I’m taking the OVER at -130.

            2. Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) vs. Kevin Holland (23-7) 

                

                This fight might never have been made, especially not when Holland was at middleweight, a couple years have passed as Holland has established himself as a very capable welterweight. He hates down time as we have learned with stretches like his 5 win campaign in 2020. The UFC needed a last minute name to spice up the somewhat still lackluster p.p.v. and Holland was their man. Its only fitting with the theme of his so far crazy career, that they would offer him this fight at a catchweight of 180 lbs. with a guy he was maybe never meant to fight. He's coming off two very impressive showcase wins, a t.k.o. of Alex Oliveria and a submission of Tim Means. As for his opponent, Khamzat Chimaev, he very easily ran through his first 4 UFC opponents before his war with Burns. A loud minority of hardcore fans would like you to believe that he is the great prophet of inevitable bludgeoning, whose birth right is to take the division by storm. Then he went and shedded some 'unanticipated' blood in his most recent fight, a 15 minute war with former title challenger Gilbert Burns. This fight humanized him as we saw him actually get hurt, giving us the impression that in a very rare circumstance, he could be beat. Where is the rhyme or reason for this fight in their career trajectory? With a win Holland rides a rocket to the top off the division. With a hard fought loss he gains all the respect and clout to still get another top opponent in his next fight. Say he gets ran over by Chimaev, then we are left wondering why Chimaev was still allowed to fight after missing weight so egregiously (8 lbs.).

                 Hardcore History: The rise of Khamzat hasn’t come without its fair share of controversy and conspiracy. That shouldn’t take away from his accomplishments, but its definitely part of his story. That real life drama includes his friendship with Chechen Lieutenant General, Ramzan Kadyrov, a very harsh leader notorious for human rights abuse and befriending Russian fighters. The New York Times has detailed his relationship with these fighters, including training with his team and receiving large gifts like Chimav's Mercedes Benz. The origin of Chimaev though, might help to explain his position. Having been born in Chechnya and living there till he turned 18, he was very influenced by a culture afflicted by war and oppression. His brave mother moved him and his two siblings into a tiny apartment in Sweden. After years of working odd jobs and wrestling, against the advice of his closest brother and mentor, he moved to Stockholm to finally train mixed martial arts. He thought if Conor McGregor could do what he did to Jose Aldo, why can't he succeed and provide a better life for his mother? So he did and here we are. 

            Outta' the Cage: Kevin Holland didn't grow up in war ridden third world country, but he's had his own fair share of chaos. As of late he has been reprimanding criminals, inspiring Dana White to brand him "a superhero". His alleged 'heroics' include chasing down and detaining a car jacker, as well as disarming and subduing a gunman in a restaurant. Holland isn't unfamiliar with the hard knock life though, having grown up with both his parents in and out of the prison system. Two fighters who are no stranger to strife. One who climbed out of poverty against all odds to fight for his family, and one who fights for love of the sport, while sending criminals to prison in his free time. Who will emerge victorious? 

            Dave’s Pick: The line on this fight came in at Khamsat -450 with it quickly shooting up to -650. The total is 1.5 rounds at -140. Although Holland has a punchers chance, we obviously can’t lay that kind of juice to pick Khamsat. The total looks very interesting to me. Holland has been working on his wrestling for the past couple years now, and although it will be nowhere near the elite level of Khamsat, he may be able to hold him off for a while. Can he make it to the 7.5 minute mark? Yes, I believe that he can. I’m hoping that he does not get taken down very early in the fight, and we can make it to round 3. I’m taking the OVER 1.5 at -140. 

            3. Irene Aldana (13-6) vs. Macy Chiasson (9-2). 

                Guadalajara born fighter, Irene Aldana, has captured 3 wins in her last 4 outings. With her last win being a 1st round t.k.o. of veteran Yana Kunitskaya. Her opponent Macy Chiasson trains with surging gym Fortis M.M.A. and is the Ultimate Fighter 28 featherweight winner. For this bout she is dropping down to take on Aldana. She's won 3 of her last 4, with the loss coming at the hands of veteran Raquel Pennington. Her only other loss was an upset to Lina Lansberg, Macy was a heavy 4 to 1 favorite and showed why in the first round, but made a couple mistakes in the clinch and got handled on the ground for about 2 minutes of rounds 2 and 3. This fight is very close on paper with Aldana coming in as the slight favorite. What makes this interesting is that Aldana's last two losses were to common denominator Raquel Pennington and featherweight frequenter Holly Holm. Should Macy be able to pick up the upset, one might find Aldana's vulnerability to be against a stronger, more physical opponent. Macy utilizes a heavy clinch similar to Holm and can use her size to out grapple you. On the flip side, Aldana is known as a striker, but has a few key subs to her record. This matchup is very compelling.

               Home Grown: Macy was in a bad car accident after high school, this kept her off the softball field, but later introduced her to Krav Mega. She attended these classes as more of a physical fitness challenge, but found her way to m.m.a. in the same gym. That's when she lived and trained out of her birth place, New Orleans, LA. Since about 2018, she trains in Dallas at Fortis M.M.A. Her opponent Irene was born in Guadalajara and still trains out of there. She is currently training with Lobo M.M.A. and the likes of UFC vet. Alexa Grasso and submission specialist Diego Lopes. 

                Dave’s Pick: The line comes in with Aldana as your favorite at -150 with the comeback on Chiasson at +130 I typically don’t like to place wagers on fighters that miss weight, but this will be an exception. Aldana is going to be so much better on her feet, and with a solid take down defense, I see her getting the victory. Aldana has won 3 out her last 4 fights and her last 2 victories have come by KO/TKO. I’m taking Irene Aldana here at -150.

               Editor's Note: Please gamble responsibly and if need be, seek help at https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline-1-800-522-4700/